Have a lot of political thoughts rattling around in my head, so figured I may as well pour them into a blog, see if I can shape them into anything coherent. You have been warned! Also, the usual caveat about these being purely the opinions of one person obviously applies.
I’m not sure the UK has ever been in a more parlous situation than it currently is, politically. The Tories have spent almost fourteen years trashing the country, & now seem to have adopted a full scorched-earth policy. Keir Starmer has “transformed” Labour into a vacuous near-clone of the Tories whose entire purpose seems to be…well, no-one really knows, least of all, apparently, Starmer. The LibDems are practically invisible, a wishy-washy mishmash of nothing in particular. The Reform Party (formerly UKIP) refuse to go away, despite having no MPs and few to no councillors. The only ray of light is the Green Party, not perfect, but still light years better than the rest, and enjoying something of a surge, lately.
The big question, prompted by the knowledge that next year, 2024, will almost certainly be an election year, is how all this will shake out in a General Election. The prevailing prediction in the media, backed up by opinion polls, suggest the Tories being practically decimated, a huge margin of victory for Labour, and everyone else doing about the same as normal. The thing is, I’m really not sure that’s how it’ll actually pan out, and there’s a few reasons for that.
One: the 2024 election will undoubtedly, in my opinion, be subject to a lot of tampering, just like the 2017 and especially 2019 ones were, mostly focused on the postal votes. Two: I subscribe to the belief that opinion polls are much more about influencing public opinion than reflecting it. Three: results in local and by-elections have not reflected the predictions, with both the Tories and Labour doing poorly, and Greens and independent candidates doing well. Four: the mentioned surge for the Greens and other progressive candidates. Five: recent and ongoing world events have had a profound effect on our perceptions of politicians and the media.
A few of these, I want to go into more detail about. Going back to last year’s – 2023 – local elections, The Tories were indeed decimated, but Labour, overall, barely gained at all. The real big gains were made by the Greens, the LibDems, and independent candidates. Of particular note was that in seats where Starmer forcibly replaced the candidates, the originals stood as independents, and mostly won, handsomely. That’s a tactic Starmer loves, backfiring dramatically. The pattern has, as far as I can see, mostly held true in the various by-elections since.
Speaking of Starmer, he’s the next factor to consider. He’s not winning over the electorate; quite the reverse, in fact. He’s proven himself a serious liability to the party, a plastic posturer with no substance, no principles, a weather vane always in motion, reneging on promise after pledge after promise, and nodding obediently along with all the worst impulses of the Tories. He proclaims his party the change Britain needs, yet offers nothing at all different. He’s so visibly, nakedly a fraud it borders on farcical, and it’s negatively impacting Labour’s electoral results.
Starmer’s incompetence is undoubtedly a contributing factor to the Green surge, but there’s also the latter’s latest co-leaders, Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay, to consider. They, Denyer especially, are leagues better than previous leaders, more alert, more pointed, more proactive, more present, more tactically astute, more willing to actively and clearly and constructively oppose the Tories, in sharp contrast to Labour and the LibDems, and are having an impact as a result. Enough of one, in fact, that Labour figures have reportedly lashed out at them, always a sign of fear, and formerly Labour-blinkered high-profile left Twitter accounts, like Tory Fibs, The Agitator and Wolfie, are now supporting them, pushing them as a viable alternative. The Greens have real momentum, and it’s still building.
And then there are the ongoing world events: Israel’s genocidal assault on Palestine, and the ever-increasing fallout of that. It’s hard to overstate the impact it’s having, that Sunak and Starmer’s support of it, is having in the UK. It feels like a serious shift is taking place, and never have the two main parties felt so vulnerable, and they only have themselves to blame for it. This, and how it all ultimately plays out, is arguably the biggest factor in determining the shape of the next General Election.
My guess, my instinct, is we’ll end up with a hung Parliament. Labour will win the most seats, but not enough to form a Government by themselves. This leads to the question of coalitions, and raises the frankly terrifying spectre of a Labour-Tory coalition. The only consistent thing about Keir Starmer is his desire for power by any means, and if a pact with the Tories is needed, I don’t think he’d hesitate even for a second. The LibDems, if they win enough seats, may well consider a coalition with Labour, if only to try and salvage some shred of relevance after Nick Clegg so thoroughly trashed them. The Greens, I feel, would be highly unlikely to consider one. If no coalitions are possible, then I’ve no idea what happens.
Of course, a lot depends on just how much momentum the Greens and independents can gain. A Green or Green-independent coalition Government doesn’t feel impossible to me, just very unlikely, and how much meaningul change they’d be able to implement with a Lords stuffed with Labour and Tory peers liable to be hostile to them is a whole other question.
And on top of all that, there’s the matter of which high-profiles MPs might lose their seats, and what effect that could have. It is difficult to see, especially in the wake of Gaza, anything other than a clearout of Tory cabinet MPs, potentially including Sunak himself, and that would be a very heavy blow for that party to deal with. Equally, top Labour MPs could also fall, including Starmer and Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting, not least since progressive candidates and campaigns are being prepared against them. If Labour did win overall, but Starmer lost his seat, what then? How could he be PM when he’s not even an MP?
There are a lot of potential permutations, a confusing amount, in fact, but one, at least to my mind, near-certainty. The 2024 UK General Election is going to be a dramatic, even seismic one. One way or another, it’s going to have a profound effect on the country, and I can only hope it’s one for the better.
Foxy Musings 